Do nothing


Hi Reader,

In September 1995, Peter Lynch wrote a timeless article titled, Fear of Crashing.

Here are a few quotes from the article:

"The Dow's passing 4700 has brought new worries about a nasty correction. The worrying started as soon as we recovered from the last nasty correction...in 1990."
"Let me go on record with my prediction: Another big correction is on the way. I'd bet the ranch on it…"
"Stocks have declined 10% or more on 53 occasions since the turn of the century. That's roughly one correction occurring every two years. And on 15 of those 53 occasions, stocks have declined 25% or more. That's one nasty correction every 6 years…"
"Assuming you agree with my forecast, how can we prepare? Mostly by doing nothing."

Lynch makes a couple of points worth revisiting today.

First, corrections are an extremely common occurrence. They always have been and always will be.

We're experiencing one now, and while I don't own a ranch, I'd bet my tract home there will be another one in the future. 🤠

I've found that the only thing more common than market corrections are the predictions for market corrections.

The minute this one is behind us...

...the talking heads will be predicting the next one.

For that reason, we should mentally prepare ourselves for these inevitabilities.

Second, how should we prepare for corrections? Or what might we do once we're in the middle of a correction?

Keep in mind that Lynch is widely considered one of the greatest investors of all time.

His advice to "do nothing" wasn't what most would have expected from a successful active fund manager.

He didn't say we should evaluate the current economic or geopolitical climate or go to cash to wait for clearer skies.

On the contrary -- and in the plainest language possible -- he said to DO NOTHING.

As unhelpful as that sounds at first glance, it's easy to see the value of this "do nothing" advice. In fact, it's staring right at us in the first quote I shared above:

"The Dow's passing 4700 has brought new worries about a nasty correction."

Lynch wrote that in 1995.

Today, the Dow is at ~33,500 and we're in the middle a bear market. 

That means, since the article's publication, if you owned the index and followed his advice by doing nothing...

...your investment would have multiplied 7 times.

All you had to do was sit there. And do nothing.

The benefit of hindsight makes this sound easy, but of course, it wasn't.

Since 1995, we've experienced:

  • Two of the deepest declines in market history
  • A flat decade
  • A global pandemic
  • 40-year record high inflation

And yet, despite each of these ends-of-the-world, including the one we're currently in, the market is still up 7x.

The overlooked key to this strategy is not being distracted by our friends who call us crazy for "doing nothing" while they panic sell at market lows.

We don't have to do that.

We can heed the wisdom and life experience of those who have come before us.

And we can lean on the entirety of history.

This is the supremely logical position to take, even if it is perpetually uncomfortable.

New Subscriber?

📖 Read last weeks newsletter: Mid-Term Elections and the Stock Market

As always, reply to this email with any comments or questions. I read and respond to every message. :)

Stay wealthy,

Taylor Schulte, CFP®

Taylor Schulte

I'm the host of the Stay Wealthy Retirement Show and founder of Define Financial, an award-winning retirement and tax planning firm. When I’m not helping people lower their tax bill, you can find me traveling with my wife and kids, searching for the next best carne asada burrito, or trying to master Adam Scott’s golf swing.

Read more from Taylor Schulte

Hi Reader, You may have already noticed, but the title of this note is an oxymoron. There is no such thing as knowledge of the future because, quite literally, the future is unknowable. This is as true in business and the markets as it is in life. In today's email: The disconnect between expectations & reality Predicting versus planning Avoiding investing mistakes First, did you catch the most recent podcast episode? 👇 Small Cap Value Investing (Part 1): Is This Popular Strategy Dead? What...

Hi Reader, Throughout our investing lives, we have learned (or assumed) that: Good economic data = markets go up Bad economic data = markets go down This makes intuitive sense, but our recent investing experience has been anything but normal. In his latest memo, Howard Marks shared the following cartoon that captures the confusing world we've lived in for the past couple of years... ...one where it's been incredibly difficult to discern how the markets will respond to various economic data....

Hi Reader, Today, I’m sharing five of my favorite investing & economic charts from the past month. These charts cover topics such as: Market volatility Investing in gold Inflation...and more! Before we dive in, did you catch this week's podcast episode? Retirement, Taxes, and Investment Underperformance In this episode, I provide key takeaways from three of the BEST retirement articles I read this month. One of the articles makes a strong case for why taxes will be HIGHER in the future....